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The World Bank, on the other hand, projects 3.2 percent growth in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. The IMF similarly sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth projected to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, showing a shift toward more favorable general conditions.
Can Small Firms Survive the UAE Human Capital Change?The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects global development alleviating to 3.1 percent in 2026, with innovative economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent. On that contrast, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would place the region materially ahead of the world average and somewhat above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, enhancing the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that local threat conditions remain contained and reform momentum holds.
Can Small Firms Survive the UAE Human Capital Change?Data from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors currently account for more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has actually continued to increase as governments broaden financial investment in services, facilities, and technology. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is forecasted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and rising investment in innovation and AI-related infrastructure.
Public-sector financial investment and reform remain central to sustaining this pattern. Policy steps targeted at attracting foreign direct financial investment, relieving foreign ownership guidelines, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil expansion and minimize the region's direct exposure to oil cost volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the development outlook, oil earnings are anticipated to play an encouraging function in 2026.
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