Predicting the 2026 Middle East Corporate Landscape

Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is increasingly viewed as a combination year, in which diversification-led development ends up being more deeply embedded in the region's economic model, minimizing reliance on hydrocarbons and increasing strength to external shocks. Projections from major organizations broadly converge on a more powerful GCC development profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by resistant domestic demand, continued non-oil expansion, and (to varying degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

3.2 percent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth forecasted to rise from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, showing a shift toward more positive general conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) tasks worldwide development alleviating to 3.1 percent in 2026, with sophisticated economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies just above 4 percent. On that contrast, a 4.44.5 percent GCC expansion would position the region materially ahead of the world average and slightly above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, reinforcing the GCC's status as a fairly high-growth pocketprovided that local threat conditions stay contained and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center show that non-oil sectors already account for more than 73 percent of overall GDP, a share that has actually continued to rise as governments expand investment in services, facilities, and innovation. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is predicted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, enhancing credit conditions, and rising investment in innovation and AI-related infrastructure.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Accelerating Dubai Industrial Growth through Innovation

Public-sector investment and reform stay main to sustaining this pattern. Policy procedures focused on drawing in foreign direct financial investment, easing foreign ownership guidelines, expanding capital markets, and supporting private-sector participation continue to underpin non-oil expansion and minimize the region's direct exposure to oil price volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the development outlook, oil incomes are expected to play a supportive role in 2026.

Oxford Economics expects Brent crude costs to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. However, oil supply is anticipated to increase once again in the second half of the year, with a full unwinding of remaining production caps likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly helpful of growth. Inflation is expected to stay low, with the IMF forecasting typical inflation of 2 percent across the region in 2026. Steady rates are helping maintain genuine home incomes and underpin consumer spending, which Oxford Economics expects to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.